T2.1 - Ensemble-Variational DA Reanalysis [Months: 1-45] MO

Ensemble Variational DA development: Development of a European area version of the Met Office Global Regional
Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS – Bowler et al. 2008) and a regional version of the Met Office’s coupled
Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation (EVDA) algorithm - Clayton et al. (2012). M1 - M36.
Ensemble Variational DA observations: Specific observation preparation for ensemble regional reanalysis, beyond
that available from ERA-CLIM and UERRA WP1. M1 -M21.
Ensemble Variational DA production: An ensemble European regional reanalysis for the satellite era (1978-
present). Production using MO HPC resources at ECMWF to start M15. M15 - M39
Ensemble Variational DA diagnostics: Diagnostics of quality of production, mean and uncertainty estimates.
Deterministic and probabilistic diagnostics for production to start M15, ends M45.

T2.2 - Deterministic Reanalysis [Months: 1-48] SMHI, MF

HARMONIE preparation: Prepare and test the HARMONIE RA with input, physiography and soil and two different
physics schemes. Preparations and developments will start M1, end M4. Parallel runs with the two physics
packages start M4 and end M9, (SMHI and MF, M1-M9)
HARMONIE production: European 11 km 3D-VAR atmospheric and surface reanalysis from 1961-present. Running
the reanalysis, in 2 streams from ~1989 and from 1961-1989. (SMHI, M8 - M45)

T2.3 - Downscaling [Months: 1-36] MF

MESCAN preparation: Setting up the processing reanalysis suite at ECMWF with archiving at Météo-France. (MF,
M1- M6)
MESCAN Europe: 2D downscaling reanalysis over the entire Europe at 5.5 km from 1961. (MF, M1 - M45)

MESCAN ensemble: An ensemble surface analysis will be developed and evaluated for a short period (~5 years)
over Europe with MESCAN (or MO’s EUROPP system) using uncertainties derived from ensemble outputs in task
2.1 and/or observation network and perturbed observations. (MF, M12 - M36)


T2.4 - Cloud Fraction Reanalysis [Months: 12-24] SMHI

MESAN cloud analysis: 2D analysis of cloud fraction for 30 years, at 5.5 km resolution 1982-2013.

T2.5 - Ensemble-Nudging DA Reanalysis [Months: 1-45] UB

Kalman Filter Ensemble DA (KFENDA) observations: Generation of a probabilistic observation dataset in order
to increase the density in observation sparse periods and regions which will be used in the ensemble nudging
scheme. (UB, M1 - M9)

Kalman Filter Ensemble DA development: Development of an ensemble reanalysis system based on the DWD
mesoscale numerical NWP model COSMO. (UB, M5 - M21).
KFENDA test: A feasibility study of a homogeneous European ensemble regional RA for the pre-satellite era. (UB,
M21 - M35)
KFENDA diagnostics: Diagnostics of quality of KFEN uncertainty estimates. (UB, M36 - M45)

T2.6 - Reanalysis Cross-Evaluation [Months: 15-45] MO, SMHI, DWD, UB

Evaluation of the Regional re-analyses: Evaluation of quality of EVDA/HARMONIE and KFENDA test mean and
uncertainty estimates. Ensemble reanalysis uncertainties will be evaluated by comparing EVDA, HARM, and KFEN
datasets against a) Each other and b) Global (ERA-CLIM). (MO, SMHI, UB, M15 - M45).